Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
