🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Participant Profited $436,000 on Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January surged in the hours before Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," commented an industry expert. A small number of other traders also profited large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule introduced on Monday seeks to ban federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the prediction market arena. A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."